COST OF LIVING: COMPETITION COMMISSION CONCERNED ABOUT BASIC FOODSTUFF TRENDS

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COST OF LIVING: COMPETITION COMMISSION CONCERNED ABOUT BASIC FOODSTUFF TRENDS

• 09 September 2026
• Trade, Industry & Competition
• SA Legal Academy

‘Consumers are not always benefiting from lower input costs’, according to a media statement on the Competition Commission’s recently published cost of living report – its third since September 2025.

‘In several food markets – including brown bread, maize meal and sunflower oil – producer prices remain elevated despite significant decreases in the price of grains and oilseeds. In other food markets – such as individually quick frozen (IQF) chicken and canned pilchards – the retail price remains elevated despite stable or declining producer prices’.

The report nevertheless acknowledges the likely impact of higher fuel prices and transport costs, electricity, water and communication on the price of basic foodstuffs.

‘The retail price of brown bread has been on an upward trend’ since April 2026, possibly reflecting ‘the pass through of higher producer prices’. This is noting that the cost of processing, shipping, and retailing brown bread (known as the farm-to-producer spread) ‘increased significantly to about 79%’ during the first few months of 2026 – the highest it has been since 2023’.

Against that backdrop, ‘the Commission will monitor whether producer prices start to decrease and whether that is passed through by the retail layer’. This is especially given ‘the global decrease in wheat prices’, and a decrease in the farm-to-producer spread towards the end of 2025.

According to the report, this year’s ‘record’ maize harvest season and a concomitant increase in maize seed supply was expected to drive down the price of maize meal. However, the maize meal producer price has been ‘on an upward trend since late last year, with a temporary decrease in March 2026’. Although prices have since stabilised, ‘the producer price of maize meal requires closer scrutiny to understand the drivers’.

Turning to sunflower seed oil, the report notes that – while seed prices ‘increased significantly from January to March 2026’ – from April 2026 there has been a ‘substantial’ decrease. Apparently, this is not reflected in the farm-to-producer spread – which is now ‘far above historic levels’, requiring ‘closer scrutiny’.

June 2026 saw an increase in IQF chicken retail prices ‘despite stable producer prices’ and remains a concern. This is especially noting that the ‘temporary suspension of poultry imports from Brazil after … (an) avian influenza outbreak’ was lifted in July 2025.

The Commission is also concerned that canned pilchard retail prices ‘have not responded to the lower producer prices’ resulting from an increase in the total allowable catch for sardines announced by the Department of Forestry, Fisheries & the Environment in June 2026. The announcement was made in the context of sardines and pilchards ‘moving away from their usual spot in search of colder waters’. The disparity between retail prices and the decline in producer prices will be monitored ‘in the upcoming months’.

With these worrying trends in mind, the report:

‘examines how rising prices are transmitted through the economy’

‘the extent to which they amplify broader cost-of-living pressures’, and

explores the outcome of a ‘dedicated deep dive’ into municipal water tariffs.

Please click the links below for more information:

• report
• media statement

Published by SA Legal Academy Policy Watch

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